He was wrong about the Long Tail, wrong about Free content and wrong about the death of the web.
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Annenberg Innovation Lab 
A friend’s response
1. My first comedic observation – How can anyone have the guts to say “we called this 15 years ago when we wrote about pointcast and ms active desktop” – He actually uses the word prescient to describe his deep insight at that time. Wow – it is just me or this a case for a serious ego adjustment. I mean – really? Can anyone really write those words and believe it? “Yes, I called the iPhone and Facebook as closed systems 15 years ago when talking about pointcast.” Wow. 🙂
2. I’m becoming an old timer in this industry – My second reaction was “the pendulum has swung back to client software – okay it always swing back and forth – mainframe/ client-server / web / client apps (phone mainly). And like all things that try to “predict” an end state based on current date – this one tends to extrapolate. prior to iPhone every said client s/w was dead – least common denominator browser is fine – now it’s all apps. It reminds me of the bidding on 3G licenses in Europe – of course everyone wants these service – EVERYONE ALL THE TIME! really?
3. It is an interesting defintion choice – web = html / browser based. What they imply is that cross-platform is dead / lowest common denominator is dead. But I don’t see that in their data. I see video growing big time. We know and love that. I see peer to peer having a bigger share – we know and love that. Okay so video is big. That is actually orthogonal to the main point – which is that closed system and client s/w trump a Google-style open web based on browser html.
4. The data I’d like to see is for people using a “box” that connects to the Internet (phone / PC) – how much time is spent in local client apps that don’t access the web to perform (office, local games) vs the browser vs apps that are always web connected. That would tell you something and I bet it would show you that the web is actually growing massively but a relatively small number of phone users are skewing the data. anyone willing to find the data and / or take the bet?
5. McKinsey wrote about and spoke about winner take all markets back in 2002 – What’s new?
Did anyone else have a different perspective?